Towards circular food systems: Environmental analysis of future scenarios of circularity in north-Netherlands.

Circular agriculture (CA) is a promising alternative to the current linear system, which has an enormous environmental impact and is not sustainable in the long run. Circularity focusses on input reduction, re-use and recycling to reduce the environmental impact of the food system whilst improving prosperity. The concepts of CA are well established, but many uncertainties remain to the implementation of circular systems in practice. Major unknowns are related to the geographic area at which resource loops can be closed, which directly relates to the degree to which a system is or should be circular. The tolerated flows of feed and food between regions directly affect land-use, biodiversity and environmental impacts of agriculture, the regional economy and human diet. The interactions between food demand, local and regional production, land-use and environment as function of the degree of circularity and intensity of land use remain poorly understood. This proposed study therefore aims to quantify the impacts and trade-offs between environmental and production objectives, to generate quantitative insights in future scenarios for agriculture which are key to develop feasible transition pathways towards circular food systems. The north of the Netherlands is used as a case study region, as it has high potential to become circular and also entails conflicting interests and claims on land and resources that facilitate identification of trade-offs.