When farming becomes a risky business for smallholders: how is risk influencing farmer decisions in Tanzania?

Average national maize yield in Tanzania, ranges from 1.5 - 1.55 tonnes per hectare, much lower than what can be achieved (Mkamilo, 2004) (www.yieldgap.org/ ). The production is strongly limited by biophysical and socio economic factors and challenges. These include poor soil fertility and nutrient limitation (Giller et al., 2011), unstable prices of inputs and grain, variable weather, inadequate insurance policies and poor infrastructure  (Cong et al., 2014, Hurley, 2010). Fluctuation of prices on local markets directly leads to large uncertainty in financial benefits of inputs applied (Van Campenhout, 2007, Isinika et al., 2011, Morris, 2007). Biophysical aspects also affect financial returns as nutrient use efficiency varies strongly between fields and farms (Tittonell et al., 2007a, Tittonell et al., 2007b, Zingore et al., 2007). Inputs of the required composition need to be delivered on farm in time and financial services and transactions need to be reliable. Better understanding of these risks within the farming system context will clear balance best agronomic practices with social-economic circumstances. The study will identify and evaluate biophysical and socio economic risks facing maize smallholder farmers as well as assessing their impacts on farmer’s decisions. Experimental and survey data will be collected from two distinct regions in Tanzania, quantifying risks according to farm types and gender differences. Also, the impact of fertilizer formulation, quantity, timing and fertilizer applications will be examined in different field types. We will assess the impact of weather index insurance in improving input accessibility, evaluate the effect of physical and financial infrastructure on accessibility of inputs and analyse the effect of gender on decision making in agricultural risk reduction strategies.